The temporal correlation between positive testing and death in Italy: from the first phase to the later evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: After the global spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), research has concentrated its efforts on several aspects of the epidemiological burden of pandemic. In this frame, the presented study follows a previous analysis of the temporal link between cases and deaths during the first epidemic wave (Phase 1) in Italy (March-June 2020). METHODS: We here analyze the COVID-19 epidemic in the time span from March 2020 to June 2021. RESULTS: The elaboration of the curves of cases and deaths allows identifying the temporal shift between the positive testing and the fatal event, which corresponds to one week from W2 to W33, two weeks from W34 to W41, and three weeks from W42 to W67. Based on this finding, we calculate the Weekly Lethality Rate (WLR). The WLR was grossly overestimated (~13.5%) in Phase 1, while a mean value of 2.6% was observed in most of Phase 2 (starting from October 2020), with a drop to 1.4% in the last investigated weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings offer an interesting insight into the magnitude and time evolution of the lethality burden attributable to COVID-19 during the entire pandemic period in Italy. In particular, the analysis highlighted the impact of the effectiveness of public health and social measures, of changes in disease management, and of preventive strategies over time.  (www.actabiomedica.it).

Renal involvement in COVID-19: focus on kidney transplant sector.

INTRODUCTION: Kidney transplant recipients and patients on the waiting list for kidney transplant who acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection are at serious risk of developing severe COVID-19, with an increased risk of mortality for the their immunosuppressive state; other risk factors for mortality have been identified in some comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes, asthma and chronic lung disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sharp reduction in kidney transplants in most countries, mainly due to the concern of patients on the waiting list for their potential increased susceptibility to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare facilities and for the difficulties of transplant centers to ensure full activity as hospitals have had to focus most of their attention on COVID-19 patients. Indeed, while the infection curve continued its exponential rise, there was a vertical decline in kidney donation/transplant activity. CONCLUSION: This review article focuses on the damage induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection on kidney and on the adverse effect of this pandemic on the entire kidney transplant sector.

Analysis of the time evolution of COVID-19 lethality during the first epidemic wave in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While the entire world is still experiencing the dramatic emergency due to SARS-CoV-2, Italy has a prominent position since it has been the locus of the first major outbreak among Western countries. The aim of this study is the evaluation of temporal connection between SARS-CoV-2 positive tests (cases) and deaths in Italy in the first wave of the epidemic. METHODS: A temporal link between cases and deaths was determined by comparing their daily/weekly trends using surveillance data of the period March 2-June 2020. RESULTS: The monitoring of the cases/deaths evolution during the first wave of the outbreak highlights a striking correlation between infections of a certain week and deaths of the following one. We defined a weekly lethality rate that is virtually unchanged over the entire months of April and May until the first week of June (≈13.6%). Due to the rather low number of cases/deaths, this parameter starts to fluctuate in the following three weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis indicates that the weekly lethality rate is virtually unchanged over the entire first wave of the epidemic, despite the progressive increase of the testing. As observed for the overall lethality, this parameter uniformly presents rather high values. The definition of a temporal link between cases and deaths will likely represent a useful tool for highlighting analogies and differences between the first and the second wave of the pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness, even if partial, of the strategies applied during the ongoing outbreak. (www.actabiomedica.it).